"Using voter turnout to predict the outcome of an election is fraught with risks."
Increased voter participation can have many causes. And the voting pattern is as varied as the causes. Unless there is one pre-dominant (and, therefore, easily identifiable) factor in an election, there is no way to analyse how an increased voting percentage will affect the outcome. The Hindu : Opinion / Op-Ed : Numbers in search of a narrative If the factors are varied, then one factor could counteract another, making any prediction hazardous.
There is no simple co-relation between voter turnout and election outcomes. Without going into the specifics of which section in which area voted in increased numbers, it is pointless to talk about how turnout will impact on the result. The turnout is dependent on voter interest, and this, in many cases, is not any one thing.
No one grand theory will hold; no one methodology is adequate.
There is no simple co-relation between voter turnout and election outcomes. Without going into the specifics of which section in which area voted in increased numbers, it is pointless to talk about how turnout will impact on the result. The turnout is dependent on voter interest, and this, in many cases, is not any one thing.
No one grand theory will hold; no one methodology is adequate.
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